Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 36.854687 43.676576 51.198257 60.077909 70.243743 81.487389 94.831878
2024-11-03 27.506402 36.691202 47.835672 62.224298 80.166451 101.649753 129.149969
2024-11-10 22.649524 33.082858 46.690954 65.455612 90.331857 121.818095 164.264809
2024-11-17 19.218894 30.327097 45.722197 68.132573 99.346650 140.632314 198.585036
2024-11-24 16.049699 27.209972 43.563017 68.558649 104.931999 154.926503 227.591979
2024-12-01 13.012663 23.670898 40.155349 66.553311 106.581288 163.595088 249.152573
2024-12-08 11.121041 21.563322 38.515086 66.800777 111.255530 176.545286 277.222789
2024-12-15 9.735207 20.036550 37.525510 67.822860 117.001250 191.229260 308.473346
2024-12-22 7.605404 16.793257 33.227766 62.952423 113.001413 190.897094 317.269361
2024-12-29 6.839902 15.952750 32.921885 64.635531 119.523076 206.921166 351.534972
2025-01-05 5.867204 14.520974 31.346190 63.902877 121.901023 216.472145 376.179507
2025-01-12 5.700595 14.729382 32.837122 68.752507 134.050341 242.308694 427.742461
2025-01-19 4.467326 12.489675 29.509440 64.793695 131.299543 244.825613 444.152837
2025-01-26 4.011822 11.942216 29.526693 67.252578 140.350981 267.922560 496.119816
2025-02-02 3.695061 11.656968 30.040172 70.722306 151.524011 295.342606 556.871419
2025-02-09 3.368115 11.266659 30.255140 73.583700 161.750751 321.707866 617.244423
2025-02-16 2.925669 10.452511 29.377693 74.038935 167.343138 340.150836 664.924695
2025-02-23 2.404653 9.265826 27.417533 71.896912 167.572311 348.836762 695.910782
2025-03-02 2.087806 8.598394 26.600619 72.161281 172.620311 366.618942 743.915394
2025-03-09 1.851432 8.118457 26.175149 73.253076 179.431451 388.057324 799.549847
2025-03-16 1.410106 6.788207 23.247704 68.049006 172.419210 382.603282 805.490855
2025-03-23 1.277236 6.525542 23.208644 69.847829 180.683466 407.263786 868.667391
2025-03-30 1.083801 5.959828 22.193774 69.064860 183.137865 420.539817 910.930760